Africa is on track to significantly increase its oil and gas production over the next few years, according to the newly released State of African Energy 2026 Outlook. The report, developed by the African Energy Chamber in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights, forecasts that the continent’s oil and gas output will reach 11.4 million barrels per day by 2026. This anticipated growth is driven by rising investments in offshore exploration and intensified efforts to uncover new energy resources.
The analysis draws attention to Africa’s expanding upstream exploration sector, where countries such as Nigeria, Mozambique, and Angola are making notable advances. Nigeria remains a leader in recoverable resources, while offshore projects in Mozambique and Angola contribute significantly to the continent’s projected $41 billion share in global exploration and production capital expenditure. High-impact drilling is scheduled in South Africa, Namibia, and Ivory Coast, indicating renewed confidence among investors in Africa’s petroleum potential.
Expanding Gas Markets and Infrastructure Investment Needs
The report highlights remarkable progress in Africa’s natural gas sector. In 2024, the continent’s gas output exceeded 300 billion cubic meters, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies accounting for 8.5 percent of global LNG production. New developments in Angola, Senegal, and Mauritania are expected to further increase Africa’s presence in international gas markets.
Midstream and downstream sectors are also poised for expansion. Demand for refined petroleum products is projected to rise by 50 percent by 2050. To support this growth, industry experts call for more than $20 billion in infrastructure investments aimed at improving import capabilities and distribution networks across the continent. These investments will be critical as Africa prepares for a fourfold increase in energy demand by 2030.
Transition Towards Renewables and Clean Energy Technologies
Africa is rapidly embracing renewable energy solutions alongside its traditional oil and gas sectors. Governments have already procured 25 gigawatts of renewable capacity, while private agreements have secured an additional 11 gigawatts. Between 2020 and 2025, investments in clean energy technologies—including solar and wind—reached $34 billion. This momentum positions renewables as a key component of Africa’s energy future.
Despite these advances, natural gas is expected to remain central to the continent’s energy mix. By 2050, it is projected to account for about 45 percent of total power generation. This balanced approach allows Africa to pursue economic growth while minimizing environmental impacts.
Population Growth and Emissions Outlook
The report also examines demographic trends that will shape Africa’s energy landscape. By 2060, the continent’s population is forecasted to represent 28 percent of the global total. However, even with rapid population growth and increased energy consumption, Africa’s share of global energy-related emissions is expected to remain modest at around nine percent.
This creates a unique opportunity for Africa to pursue low-carbon development strategies while meeting its rising energy needs. The official launch of the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook will take place at African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies in Cape Town, bringing together stakeholders from across the industry to discuss these important findings.
