U.S. President Donald Trump is employing tariffs as a versatile foreign policy tool, targeting countries that continue to import Russian oil amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With a looming Friday deadline for Russia to agree to peace terms or face secondary tariffs imposed on its oil buyers, the administration has taken a decisive but potentially risky step.
On Wednesday, the White House announced a 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchases of Russian oil. This marks the first financial penalty aimed at Russia during Trump’s second term. While no tariff order has yet been issued for China — Russia’s largest oil customer — White House officials indicated that similar secondary sanctions could be announced as early as Friday.
These measures follow a pattern of Trump wielding tariffs beyond traditional trade disputes, having previously threatened Denmark over Greenland, sought to halt fentanyl shipments from Mexico and Canada, and penalized Brazil over political tensions.
Though secondary tariffs could significantly undercut a key revenue stream for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort, they also carry substantial risks for the U.S. administration. Rising oil prices could fuel inflation and political backlash ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Moreover, such tariffs risk complicating ongoing efforts to negotiate trade agreements with India and China.
Putin, meanwhile, appears undeterred by the threat of intensified sanctions. “There is close to zero chance” he will halt the conflict due to tariff threats, said Eugene Rumer, former U.S. intelligence analyst for Russia and director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program. He added that while cutting off Indian and Chinese oil purchases would severely damage Russia’s economy and war capabilities, China has already indicated it will continue buying Russian oil.
The White House and the Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Impact on Russia and Global Markets
Secondary tariffs would deepen pressure on Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter. Since late 2022, Western nations have imposed a price cap on Russian oil exports aimed at curtailing Moscow’s war funding. This has forced Russia to reroute its oil shipments from Europe to India and China, where it sells at discounted rates. While this strategy has increased costs for Russia, it has maintained a steady flow of oil to global markets.
In a potential diplomatic opening, the White House revealed plans for a possible meeting between Trump and Putin next week, following discussions between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader. Yet analysts remain skeptical about Russia’s willingness to negotiate an end to the war.
“Putin has found ways to evade sanctions and economic pressure,” said Brett Bruen, former foreign policy adviser under President Barack Obama and current head of the Global Situation Room consultancy. “Even if tariffs reduce Russia’s revenues, there is limited domestic pressure on Putin to change course.”
Complications for U.S. Trade Relations
The proposed tariffs also threaten to strain U.S. relations with India and China, two major oil importers whose cooperation is vital for broader trade and geopolitical goals. Kimberly Donovan, a former U.S. Treasury official and current director at the Atlantic Council, warned that tariffs could prompt these countries to resist U.S. demands.
“Both India and China possess leverage and can push back, knowing the U.S. needs their cooperation,” Donovan said. China has already demonstrated influence by restricting mineral exports critical to U.S. industries, while India controls access to generic pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals.
Both nations maintain that oil purchases are sovereign decisions and emphasize their compliance with the existing price cap framework on Russian crude.
Economic Risks and Retaliation Threats
Secondary tariffs would increase the cost of U.S. imports from countries buying Russian oil, incentivizing them to seek alternative suppliers. This move risks escalating fuel prices globally, with analysts warning of inflationary pressures that could undermine Trump politically.
In the months following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, crude oil prices surged toward $130 per barrel, close to historic highs. Analysts estimate that if India ceased purchasing its 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude — roughly 2% of global supply — prices could jump significantly from the current level of around $66 per barrel.
JP Morgan analysts recently described sanctioning Russian oil as “impossible” without triggering price spikes, potentially pushing Brent crude into the $80 range or higher. Despite Trump’s claims that U.S. producers could offset supply gaps, experts say domestic production cannot quickly compensate.
Russia may retaliate, possibly by closing the CPC Pipeline from Kazakhstan, which carries up to 1.7 million barrels per day and serves major Western oil companies such as Exxon, Chevron, Shell, ENI, and TotalEnergies. Such a move could trigger a global supply crisis.
Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that energy shocks amid a weakening U.S. housing market and sluggish job growth would pose significant challenges. “The key question is whether Trump can persuade voters that the economic pain is a necessary price to force Russia to negotiate,” Hendrix said. “Among his tariff strategies, this one could resonate most, but it carries enormous risks.”
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