The international olive oil market is bracing for turbulence as global production rebounds and Turkish exporters face mounting stockpiles amid sluggish overseas demand.
Robust harvest forecasts for major producers such as Spain and Tunisia are intensifying competitive pressures. At the same time, Turkey has struggled to meet its export targets, leading market analysts to project carry-over stocks exceeding 200,000 metric tons (mt) heading into the 2025/2026 season.
The current marketing year has already seen record domestic output coupled with leftover inventories of 125,000 mt from 2023. In total, around 600,000 mt of Turkish olive oil has been available in 2024/2025.
Prices on the international market fell sharply throughout the past year, and traders warn of a renewed decline by early 2026 unless demand strengthens. Previous export restrictions aimed at stabilizing the domestic market failed to deliver the intended results, prompting calls for more effective interventions.
One long-term solution under development is the construction of licensed olive oil storage warehouses. These facilities are expected to help preserve oil quality by slowing degradation, offering producers a buffer during periods of market oversupply. However, completion of the first such warehouses is not expected for another three to four years.
Amid limited success in traditional markets, Turkish producers are now eyeing China as a growth opportunity. While current Chinese annual demand stands at 30,000 mt, forecasts suggest the market could expand to 100,000 mt within five years, offering hope for diversification.
EU Imports Drop Sharply
Meanwhile, new data from the European Union underscores a broader downturn in global trade. Since the start of the 2024/2025 season on October 1, EU olive oil imports from non-member countries have plummeted 28.1% year-on-year to 52,034 mt. Import value has fallen even more steeply—by 58.1%—to €231.86 million.
The average price per kilogram has dropped to €4.46, significantly below last year’s average of €7.65/kg, largely due to improved harvests in EU producing regions.
Notably, Turkey managed to increase its shipments to the EU by 36.2%, reaching 1,346 mt. Algeria also saw a 49.9% rise in exports to the bloc. However, imports from Tunisia—the EU’s primary source—declined by 22.9% to 39,352 mt. Other major suppliers also reported significant decreases: Egypt (-50.5%), Morocco (-70.3%), and Lebanon (-71.2%).
Among EU member states, Italy remained the largest importer, increasing purchases by 3.1% to 25,390 mt. France also saw a rise of 27.3% (8,910 mt), while Spain experienced a dramatic decline of 65.1% to 10,770 mt. Belgium (+13.8%) and Germany (+66.7%) rounded out the top five importers.
EU Olive Oil Imports from Non-EU Countries (mt)
| Country | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 51,026 | 39,352 | -22.9% |
| Egypt | 8,555 | 4,234 | -50.5% |
| Morocco | 5,172 | 1,537 | -70.3% |
| Turkey | 988 | 1,346 | +36.2% |
| Algeria | 433 | 649 | +49.9% |
| UK | 724 | 560 | -22.7% |
| Syria | 97 | 426 | +339.2% |
| Lebanon | 1,460 | 420 | -71.2% |
| Albania | 2,035 | 253 | -87.6% |
| Peru | 1,167 | 217 | -81.4% |
| Others | 753 | 3,040 | +303.7% |
| Total | 72,410 | 52,034 | -28.1% |
As the global market recalibrates, stakeholders are closely watching consumption trends and trade flows in emerging markets to chart a more stable path forward.
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