OPEC‘s crude oil production fell sharply in May 2026, reaching the lowest level seen in more than 25 years. According to a Reuters survey, the 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries produced only 16.13 million barrels per day (bpd), a figure not recorded since at least the year 2000. This significant decline occurred despite earlier plans by OPEC+ to increase supply in response to growing global demand.
Impact of Middle East Tensions on Production
The steep reduction in output is largely driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran. Since April 13, a U.S. naval blockade has restricted Iranian oil exports by limiting shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This move has pushed Iran’s crude exports down to their lowest levels in six years, heavily influencing the overall drop in OPEC’s production.
Saudi Arabia also experienced a cutback in its oil output during May. Iraq faced even more severe setbacks, with production from its southern oil fields dropping by nearly 70% compared to levels before recent conflicts, as unrest continues to disrupt operations. In contrast, Venezuela and Nigeria reported slight increases in their output, benefiting from their distance from Gulf tensions.
Consequences for Global Oil Markets
This overall decline highlights how quickly regional instability can disrupt global energy supplies and derail OPEC’s production goals. Although OPEC+ had agreed to raise collective output by 188,000 bpd for July 2026, actual supply remains tight due to ongoing conflicts and blockades.
The restricted supply has pushed global oil prices upward, with Brent crude trading above $90 per barrel amid concerns about further volatility tied to geopolitical risks around the Gulf region. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates formally left OPEC on May 1, and its production numbers are excluded from these figures.
Outlook and Market Watch
These developments emphasize how export routes, internal conditions, and geopolitical events continue to shape oil production trends among OPEC members. Observers are closely watching the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East tensions, as stability there is essential for restoring normal export flows and meeting worldwide energy demand going forward.
