Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western nations have imposed multiple rounds of economic sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenue. As Europe announces its 19th round, the limits of these measures have become evident.
Russia has quickly found ways to bypass restrictions. Using a growing fleet of aging ships with unclear ownership, the country covertly transports oil to distant markets, profiting despite price caps and import bans.
Experts warn that this shadow fleet carries serious, long-term consequences. The vessels are old and poorly maintained, raising environmental risks. They have also fostered a large illicit shipping economy that could persist beyond the war, allowing nations such as Russia and Iran to operate outside international regulations, with China and India as key buyers.
“A lot of people want to do the easy part — impose sanctions — but we’ve actually caused a bigger problem,” said Ian Ralby, a maritime security expert. “The sanctions don’t put them out of business. They put them out of legitimate business.”
The shadow fleet now makes up about 17% of all active oil tankers, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of early 2025, there were roughly 940 ships, a 45% increase from the previous year. While ships with dubious practices existed before February 2022, their numbers surged after Europe banned Russian seaborne oil.
To reach buyers in India and China and avoid price caps, Russian vessels began using sketchy or no insurance, flying foreign flags, and falsifying locations. These tactics made it difficult for buyers to confirm the origin of the oil.
The fleet’s risks go beyond economics. With an average age of 20 years—seven years older than the global oil fleet—these ships pose high environmental dangers, said Natalia Gozak of Greenpeace Ukraine. Some have also been suspected of sabotage against underwater infrastructure.
Despite these challenges, sanctions supporters argue they still strain Russia. Shipping oil to distant ports and maintaining the shadow fleet is costly. “Enforcement is the real challenge,” said Ben Harris, a former U.S. Treasury official involved in the price cap.
Authorities are trying to counter the fleet. The EU has sanctioned over 500 vessels, while the U.S., Britain, Canada, and Australia are targeting others. These measures aim to make the ships unwelcome in ports. Yet, Russia continues to add vessels, often using tactics like at-sea offloading or changing ship registrations to evade sanctions.
David O’Sullivan, the EU’s sanctions envoy, likened the effort to “Whac-A-Mole,” noting that circumvention is persistent. Still, officials argue doing nothing is not an option. As Ralby warned, the shadow fleet is building a vast, illegal shipping economy that could outlast the current conflict.
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